The Acting Executive Director of the Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU), Otonga Michael Ochan, has reaffirmed that Uganda is on course to begin commercial oil production during the current financial year.
Ochan said Uganda is projected to produce about 47.5 million barrels of crude oil in the first year, with production expected to rise to more than 83 million barrels annually from 2027/28.
He made the remarks while appearing before the Parliamentary Budget Committee, chaired by Hon. Amos Kankunda, during a presentation on the Charter of Fiscal Responsibility for the financial years 2026/27 to 2030/31.
Although he did not disclose the specific month when production is expected to begin, Ochan told the committee that all oil projects are being closely monitored to ensure the country starts commercial production within the current financial year.
According to the projections presented to the committee, oil production is expected to rise to 83.86 million barrels in 2027/28, before remaining at around 84 million barrels annually over the following years.
Production is projected at 83.95 million barrels in 2028/29, 83.92 million barrels in 2029/30 and 83.15 million barrels in 2030/31.
On government revenues, Ochan said the state is expected to earn income from oil through royalties, taxes, profit oil and participating interests.
He said the government could receive between 70 and 75 percent of total oil revenues, depending on international oil prices over the lifetime of the projects.
Using a conservative oil price assumption of 50 US dollars per barrel, Ochan said government oil revenue is projected at Shs1.8 trillion in the current financial year.
The revenue is expected to increase to Shs3.2 trillion in 2027/28, Shs3.8 trillion in 2028/29, Shs4.5 trillion in 2029/30 and Shs4.8 trillion in 2030/31.
Ochan noted that the revenues could be higher if international oil prices remain above the 50-dollar-per-barrel assumption used in the fiscal projections.
He also told the committee that government has already factored in approximately Shs1.44 trillion in expected oil revenue as a source of financing for the current financial year’s budget.
Ochan said government intends to use part of the oil revenue to support the national budget, while the balance should ideally be directed towards investment.
The Petroleum Authority’s presentation comes as Uganda prepares to transition from the oil development phase to commercial production, with Parliament scrutinising projected production volumes, government revenues and the fiscal risks associated with the country’s emerging oil sector over the next five financial years.
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